Cornec, Matthieu - In: OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and … 2013 (2013) 2, pp. 109-127
Interval confidence and density forecasts, notably in the form of “fan charts”, are useful tools to describe the uncertainty inherent to any point forecast. However, the existing techniques suffer from several drawbacks. We propose a new method to represent uncertainty in realtime that is...