Bernard, Henri; Gerlach, Stefan - In: International Journal of Finance & Economics 3 (1998) 3, pp. 195-215
Following Estrella and Hardouvelis (1991) and Estrella and Mishkin (1995), we study the ability of the term structure to predict recessions in eight countries. The results are fourfold. First, the yield curve predicts future recessions in all countries. Second, term spreads forecast recessions...