We report on a technique based on multi-agent games which has potential use in the prediction of future movements of financial time-series. A third-party game is trained on a black-box time-series, and is then run into the future to extract next-step and multi-step predictions. In addition to...

Large changes tend to dictate the long-term dynamical behaviour of many real-world complex systems in both the natural and social sciences. We provide an analytic, microscopic analysis of extreme events arising in an adaptive population comprising competing agents (e.g. species, cells, traders,...

The Minority Game is a simple yet highly non-trivial agent-based model for a complex adaptive system. Here, we provide an explanation of the game's fluctuations which is both intuitive and quantitative, and which applies over the entire parameter range of interest. The physical idea behind our...