Additive models are currently used to predict risks following exposure to multiple agents or complex mixtures. Use of these models is questioned because different methods are used to derive risks for chemical and physical agents depending on the database used. Risks for the induction of cancer...

Additive models are currently used to predict risks following exposure to multiple agents or complex mixtures. Use of these models is questioned because different methods are used to derive risks for chemical and physical agents depending on the database used. Risks for the induction of cancer...

The origin of the volatility smile phenomenon observed in options markets has eluded the financial world for more than two decades. We provide a new explanation of this phenomenon using a microscopic multi-agent description of markets. In our model individual trading behavior is explicitly...

We report on a technique based on multi-agent games which has potential use in the prediction of future movements of financial time-series. A third-party game is trained on a black-box time-series, and is then run into the future to extract next-step and multi-step predictions. In addition to...

An evolutionary snowdrift game (SG) that incorporates bounded rationality and limited information in the evolutionary process is proposed and studied. Based on SG in a well-mixed population and defining the winning action at a turn to be the one that gets a higher payoff, the most recent m...

The minority game (MG) is an agent-based model of a competing population with limited resources. We propose and study a modified model based on the MG in which the pool of strategies is biased, i.e., some strategies are more often picked by agents than others. It is found that the fluctuation in...

Large changes tend to dictate the long-term dynamical behaviour of many real-world complex systems in both the natural and social sciences. We provide an analytic, microscopic analysis of extreme events arising in an adaptive population comprising competing agents (e.g. species, cells, traders,...

The crowd–anticrowd theory is applied to explain the features observed in a class of the minority game using different payoff functions. Simulations results using both the full strategy space and a reduced strategy space reveal that the standard deviation (SD) in the number of agents making a...