We argue that the true transition-to-default dynamic in banks' credit portfolios can only be fully described with a multiple-spell discrete-time hazard model. This paper develops such a model for default prediction. The model permits the use of all data available to the bank or to the bank...

Merton's model (Merton 1974) has long been a standard for estimating company's probability of default (PD) for listed companies. The major advantage of Merton's model is the use of current market prices to determine the probability of default. The logic behind the model is simple; the market...