This study compares the estimation errors of several present value discounting conventions (end-of-year, mid-year, and the more recently proposed harmonic mean convention) for a uniform distribution of intra-period cash flow - continuous and discrete. Our results show that the mid-year...

We revisit the cyclical nature of birth rates and infant health and investigate to what extent the relationship between aggregate labor market conditions and birth outcomes is mitigated by the consumption smoothing income assistance delivered through unemployment insurance (UI). We introduce a...

This paper proposes that the adoption of the modern U.S. mortgage (i.e., low down payment, long-term, and fixed-rate)--led by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) and Veteran's Administration (VA) loan insurance programs--set the stage for the mid-twentieth century U.S. baby boom by...

We conduct an empirical simulation exercise that gauges the plausible impact of increased rates of college attainment on a variety of measures of income inequality and economic insecurity. Using two different methodological approaches—a distributional approach and a causal parameter...

This paper documents how the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. affected birth rates. We review the economics of fertility, describing the evidence that would predict a COVID baby bust. We then use Vital Statistics birth data to estimate the size of that bust and its rebound, for the country as a...

There is a large body of literature in both psychology and economics documenting mistaken perceptions of randomness. In this paper we demonstrate that people appear to believe that "lightning will strike twice" when it comes to lottery jackpots. First, we show that in the week following the sale...

The share of children living in a two-parent family has declined sharply in the past 40 years, driven by a decline in marriage among parents without a four-year college degree. This paper presents a number of facts about these trends, drawing on US Census data, the Current Population Survey, the...

This paper documents how the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. affected birth rates. We review the economics of fertility, describing the evidence that would predict a COVID baby bust. We then use Vital Statistics birth data to estimate the size of that bust and its rebound, for the country as a...

We describe the challenge of college non-completion in the U.S. and a variety of explanations for the high rate of non-completion. We then provide an overview of the implementation of and evidence from eight specific college completion interventions designed to increase college completion rates...

Despite considerable controversy surrounding the use of state lotteries as a means of public finance, little is known about their consumer consequences. This project investigates two central questions about lotteries. First, do state lotteries primarily crowd out other forms of gambling, or do...