The availability of many variables with predictive power makes their selection in a regression context difficult. This study considers robust and understandable low-dimensional estimators as building blocks to improve overall predictive power by optimally combining these building blocks. Our new...

In this paper, we derive constrained optimal investment strategies for long-term savers who are interested in investing their funds in stocks, but are afraid of potentially losing, for example, their retirement income. We call this probability hedging as it is determined by the probability of...

When long-term savers plan for retirement they need to know their investment prospects in terms of real income (Merton, 2014). While inflation has traditionally been considered as a complication in financial analysis and financial practise, we obtain enhanced predictability and model fit if the...

A class of local linear kernel density estimators based on weighted least squares kernel estimation is considered within the framework of Aalen's multiplicative intensity model. This model includes the filtered data model that, in turn, allows for truncation and/or censoring in addition to...

In this paper, we apply machine learning to forecast the conditional variance of long-term stock returns measured in excess of different benchmarks, considering the short- and long-term interest rate, the earnings-by-price ratio, and the inflation rate. In particular, we apply in a two-step...

The paper shows how to reform the platform of pension products so that pension savers, professional financial advisors, actuaries and investment experts intuitively understand the underlying financial risk of the optimal investment profile. It is also pointed out that an excellent optimal...

Prospective customers of financial and insurance products can be targeted based on the profit the provider expects to earn from them. We present a model for individual expected profit and two alternatives for calculating optimal personalized prices that maximize the expected profit. For one of...