We introduce a new methodology that enables detection of the onset of convergence towards Nash equilibria in simple repeated games with infinitely large strategy spaces, thereby revealing the heuristics used in decision-making. The method works by constraining on a special finite subset of...

As many complex dynamical systems, financial markets exhibit sudden changes or tipping points that can turn into systemic risk. This paper aims at building and validating a new class of early warning signals of critical transitions. We base our analysis on information spreading patterns in...

In this article, we consider financial markets as complex dynamical systems, and check whether the critical slowing down indicators can be used as early warning signals to detect a phase transition. Using various rolling windows, we analyze the evolution of three indicators: i) First-order...

In this paper, we analyze the dynamic relationships between ten stock exchanges of the euro zone using Granger causal networks. Using returns for which we allow the variance to follow a Markov-Switching GARCH or a Changing-Point GARCH, we first show that over different periods, the topology of...