Assessing the infection fatality rate (IFR) of SARS-CoV-2 is one of the most controversial issues during the pandemic. Due to asymptomatic or mild courses of COVID-19, many infections remain undetected. Reported case fatality rates - COVID-19-associated deaths divided by number of detected...

We assess financial theory-based and machine learning-implied measurements of stock risk premia by comparing the quality of their return forecasts. In the low signal-to-noise environment of a one month horizon, we find that it is preferable to rely on a theory-based approach instead of engaging...

We propose a simulation-based strategy to estimate and empirically assess a class of asset pricing models that account for rare but severe consumption contractions that can extend over multiple periods. Our approach expands the scope of prevalent calibration studies and tackles the inherent...

We propose a simulation-based strategy to estimate and empirically assess a class of asset pricing models that account for rare but severe consumption contractions that can extend over multiple periods. Our approach expands the scope of prevalent calibration studies and tackles the inherent...

We assess financial theory-based and machine learning-implied measurements of stock risk premia by comparing the quality of their return forecasts. In the low signal-to-noise environment of a one-month horizon, it is preferable to rely on a theory-based approach instead of engaging in...

We assess financial theory-based and machine learning-implied measurements of stock risk premia by comparing the quality of their return forecasts. In the low signal-to-noise environment of a one month horizon, we find that it is preferable to rely on a theory-based approach instead of engaging...

The rare disaster hypothesis suggests that the extraordinarily high postwar U.S. equity premium resulted because investors ex ante demanded compensations for unlikely but calamitous risks that they happened not to incur. While convincing in theory, empirical tests of the rare disaster...