The maturity mismatch between their short-term financing and long-term lending exposes banks to the risk of rolling over a maturing financial debt obligation. Such a rollover risk is sufficient on its own to cause a panic at the bank level and have a ripple effect on the banking system as a...

Based on monthly data from 1970 to 2022 and the AUROC performance metric, we show that yield curve inversions generally predict recessions in the euro area. However, there are two important limitations. First, the forecasting capability of the yield curve has tended to weaken since the global...