Stress testing has become a tool of choice in banking for risk managers and regulators alike, and it is used more widely as a way to assess resilience to severely adverse events. Yet even the most creative risk manager would have been challenged to design a scenario that would have adequately...

The possibility of exact maximum likelihood estimation of many observation-driven models remains an open question. Often only approximate maximum likelihood estimation is attempted, because the unconditional density needed for exact estimation is not known in closed form. Using simulation and...

We develop a framework for modeling conditional loss distributions through the introduction of risk factor dynamics. Asset value changes of a credit portfolio are linked to a dynamic global macroeconometric model, allowing macro effects to be isolated from idiosyncratic shocks. Default...

Banks as financial intermediaries are broadly exposed to a wide range of economic and financial risk factors. We parse climate risk into its two main types: physical risk such as sea level rise and transition risk such as climate related policy changes (e.g., efficiency requirements or carbon...

In this chapter we describe stress testing at banks covering the major products and businesses in which banks engage. This includes commercial and retail lending, capital markets (investment banking, sales and trading), and trust and custody. We cover loss and net income modeling and thus...

COVID-19 is a new type of shock that is likely to produce losses on loans and financial assets higher and more correlated than historical adverse macroeconomic shocks unless policy stabilization efforts are successful. Further, the sudden economic stop caused by the need for social distancing...

Stress testing proved to be an effective crisis fighting tool in the Great Financial Crisis and has since become widely used by regulators and financial institutions to test resilience to financial and economic shocks. This served two objectives: (1) to identify and remediate banks with a...

The financial crisis forced the development of new approaches for determining capital adequacy in banks since extant methods clearly did not prepare banks nor their supervisors sufficiently. The success of stress testing as a crisis response tool, particularly in the US in 2009, has led to its...

"Stress tests are the most innovative regulatory tool to prevent and fight financial crises. Their use has fundamentally changed the mathematical modeling of financial systems, financial risk management in the public and private sector, and the policies designed to prevent and mitigate financial...

Stress tests are the most innovative regulatory tool to prevent and fight financial crises. Their use has fundamentally changed the modeling of financial systems, financial risk management in the public and private sector, and the policies designed to prevent and mitigate financial crises. When...