Proving the existence of speculative financial bubbles even a posteriori has proven exceedingly difficult[1-3] so anticipating a speculative bubble ex ante would at first seem an impossible task. Still as illustrated by the recent turmoil in financial markets initiated by the so called...

Masanao Aoki developed a new methodology for a basic problem of economics: deducing rigorously the macroeconomic dynamics as emerging from the interactions of many individual agents. This includes deduction of the fracta/intermittent fluctuations of macroeconomic quantities from the granularity...

Masanao Aoki developed a new methodology for a basic problem of economics: deducing rigorously the macroeconomic dynamics as emerging from the interactions of many individual agents. This includes deduction of the fractal / intermittent fluctuations of macroeconomic quantities from the...

We study analytically and numerically Minsky instability as a combination of top-down, bottom-up and peer-to-peer positive feedback loops. The peer-to-peer interactions are represented by the links of a network formed by the connections between firms, contagion leading to avalanches and...

The primordial confrontation underlying the existence of our universe can be conceived as the battle between entropy and complexity. The law of ever-increasing entropy (Boltzmann H-theorem) evokes an irreversible, one-directional evolution (or rather involution) going uniformly and monotonically...

We show that a simple and intuitive three-parameter equation fits remarkably well the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP) in current and constant dollars of many countries during times of recession and recovery. We then argue that this equation is the response function of the economy...

We show that a simple and intuitive three-parameter equation fits remarkably well the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP) in current and constant dollars of many countries during the times of recession and recovery. We then argue that it can be used to detect shocks and discuss its...

We show that a simple and intuitive three-parameter equation fits remarkably well the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP) in current and constant dollars of many countries during the times of recession and recovery. We then argue that it can be used to detect shocks and discuss its...

We show that a simple and intuitive three-parameter equation fits remarkably well the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP) in current and constant dollars of many countries during the times of recession and recovery. We then argue that it can be used to detect shocks and discuss its...