This paper outlines a methodology for forecasting the components of household final consumption expenditure, which is necessary in order to forecast revenue col- lections from a number of different taxes. A forecast combination approach using autoregressive models, regressions on relative prices...

With China''s share in global trade increasing rapidly, some argued in 2002-03 that China was exporting deflation to other countries as it was dumping cheap goods in mature markets. Later, others argued that China was sucking in commodities and thus causing sharp increases in global prices. The...

This paper outlines a methodology for forecasting the components of household final consumption expenditure, which is necessary in order to forecast revenue col- lections from a number of different taxes. A forecast combination approach using autoregressive models, regressions on relative prices...

We use past forecast errors to construct confidence intervals around Australian Government Budget forecasts of key economic and fiscal variables. These confidence intervals provide an indication of the extent of uncertainty around the point estimate forecasts presented in the Budget.

Crude oil prices have trended up since the end of the 1990s, peaking at a historic high in mid-2008 that was followed by a steep price correction with a subsequent rebound. This paper considers major forces behind the evolution of the oil price, using a simple model of supply and demand...