We are able to unify various disparate claims and results in the literature, that stand in the way of a unified description and understanding of human conflict. First, we provide a reconciliation of the numerically different power-law exponent values for fatality distributions across entire wars...

For the past 70 years, there has been a downward trend in the size of wars, but the idea of an enduring "long peace" remains controversial. Some recent contributions suggest that observed war patterns,including the long peace, could have come from a long-standing and unchanging war-generating...

There is a large empirical literature trying to quantify the potentially adverse affects of climate change on the risk of violent armed conflict, which focuses almost exclusively on linking annual variation in climatic conditions to violence. A major shortcoming of this approach is that it...

For the past 70 years, there has been a downward trend in the size of wars, but the idea of an enduring "long peace" remains controversial. Some recent contributions suggest that observed war patterns,including the long peace, could have come from a long-standing and unchanging war-generating...

There is a large empirical literature trying to quantify the potentially adverse affects of climate change on the risk of violent armed conflict, which focuses almost exclusively on linking annual variation in climatic conditions to violence. A major shortcoming of this approach is that it...

It is still unknown whether there is some deep structure to modern wars and terrorist campaigns that could allow reliable prediction of future patterns of violent events. Recent war research focuses on size distributions of violent events, with size defined by the number of people killed in each...

In recent years there has been an increase in the number of studies using microlevel data to analyse the aid-conflict nexus at local level, however most of these studies focus on how conflict dynamics are influenced by aid allocations whereas there is relatively little analysis on how conflict...

Although most aid projects are aimed at local development, most research on the aid-conflict nexus is based on the country-year as unit of analysis. In contrast, this study examines the link between aid commitments and conflict intensity at the local level for three African countries between...

This study reviews the contribution in predictive accuracy of a number of geographic and socio-economic factors that are commonly linked to conflict incidence. A logit model is fitted to sub-national data for Africa at grid-cell level covering the years 2000-2009, generating an out-of-sample...