We propose an observation-driven time-varying SVAR model where, in agreement with the Lucas Critique, structural shocks drive both the evolution of the macro variables and the dynamics of the VAR parameters. Contrary to existing approaches where parameters follow a stochastic process with random...

Much of the new theory of macro-economics that has been built upon micro-economic models of imperfect information leads to conclusions which are surprisingly close in spirit to Keynes' original analysis. This paper summarizes the macro-economic implications of information-based models of...

I present a model that provides a theoretical solution to the Lucas Puzzle using Financial Efficiency, which is a time-varying component of TFP. The model predicts that a financially underdeveloped economy is to benefit from financial integration through FDI capital inflow only if it experiences...

The model developed in Robert Lucas's influential "Expectations and the Neutrality of Money" has not been widely used for extensions or modifications of the original analysis, in part because of its difficulty of manipulation.The present paper describes a linearized version that--unlike other...

This paper examines, in light of the Lucas Critique, the behavior of the Phillips curve and of the term structure of interest rates after October 1979. It starts with an informal account of the policy change and then discusses how we might expect these two relations to shift after such a change....

We present a framework for computing and evaluating linear projections of macro variables conditional on hypothetical paths of monetary policy. A modest policy intervention is a change in policy that does not significantly shift agents' beliefs about policy regime and does not generate...

Sticky-price models with rational expectations fail to capture the inertia in U.S. inflation. Models with backward-looking expectations capture current inflation behavior, but are unlikely to fit other monetary regimes. This paper seeks to overcome these problems with a near-rational model of...

Lucas (1972) was a paper that permanently changed the course of macroeconomics, even though its "money supply surprise" model lost its central place in the area within a decade because of empirical difficulties. However, Lucas's novel methodology, based on clearing markets and rational...