We develop and present a new methodology to detect regime changes within a sequence of sparse networks that have overlapping and evolving community structure. The core of the methodology is a non-negative matrix factorization that maximizes a Poisson likelihood subject to a penalty that accounts...

The Horn of Africa has been characterized by perennial conflicts of all forms which include inter and intra state conflicts. There have been conflicts between Eritrea and Ethiopia, between Ethiopia and Kenya and even within Somalia to name but a few. Porous borders and communities split by the...

Based on the study of Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999), this paperstudies and applies early warning systems of currency crises to thecase of Vietnam from 1996 to 2014. Its results show that the currencycrisis is signaled six times during the observed period. Severalprincipal indicators of the...

In this study, we consider the construction of through-the-cycle ("TTC") PD models designed for credit underwriting uses and point-in-time ("PIT") PD models suitable for early warning uses, considering which validation elements should be emphasized in each case. We build PD models using a long...

Financial stability is an important part of the Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) role in parallel with maintenance of monetary stability. The impact of the global financial crises from 2007-2009 and the economic slowdown has left the Jordanian banking sector in a generally weaker position than...