The European debt crisis has revealed serious deficiencies and risks on a proper functioning of the monetary union. Against this backdrop, early warning systems are of crucial importance. In this study that focuses on euro area member states, the robustness of early warning systems to predict...

We investigate whether going concern conclusions in the interim (half-yearly) review (IGCC) provide investors with a timely source of useful information. Using the Australian setting, with mandatory interim assurance and disclosure, we find a strong negative market reaction surrounding the...

This paper summarizes a suite of early warning models to assess the probabilities of growth, fiscal, and financial crises in advanced economies and emerging markets. We estimate separate signal-extraction models for each type of crisis and sample of countries, and we use our results to generate...

This paper documents the properties of Government of Canada securities in cash, repo and securities lending transactions over their life cycle. By tracking every security from issuance to maturity, we are able to highlight inter-linkages between the markets for cash and for specific securities....

Flooding is a natural disaster that can damage large areas in the vicinity of rivers, and in the case of flash floods, also in the vicinity of smaller streams. This report presents an assessment of the capacity for flood monitoring and early flood warning for 17 of EUs neighbouring countries....

Flooding is a natural disaster that can damage large areas in the vicinity of rivers, and in the case of flash floods, also in the vicinity of smaller streams. This report presents an assessment of the capacity for flood monitoring and early flood warning for 17 of EUs neighbouring countries....

This paper contributes to literature on bank distress using the Swedish experience of the international crisis of 1907, often paralleled with 2008. By employing previously unanalyzed bank-level data, we use logit regressions and principal component analysis to measure the impact of pre-crisis...

This paper uses data on bilateral foreign exposures of domestic banking systems in order to construct early warning models for financial crises that take into account cross-country spill-overs of vulnerabilities. The empirical results show that incorporating cross-country financial linkages can...

This paper compares the out-of-sample predictive performance of different early warning models for systemic banking crises using a sample of advanced economies covering the past 45 years. We compare a benchmark logit approach to several machine learning approaches recently proposed in the...