We develop an integrated Early Warning Global Vector Autoregressive (EW-GVAR) model to quantify the costs and benefits of capital-based macroprudential policy measures. Our findings illustrate that capital-based measures are transmitted both via their impact on the banking system's resilience...

We develop a monthly Global Financial Stability Index (GFSX) that incorporates the global stock market outlook, momentum, and overall risk. Refining the financial stability concept presents challenges because of the many different approaches researchers have pursued, as well as the availability...

This study investigates an early warning indicator for liquidity shortages in the short-term interbank market. To identify structural breaks and their persistence, an autoregressive two-state regime switching model is presented. The variability in the LIBOR-OIS spread along with thresholds,...

This paper shows that agents underreact to rare and extreme signals. Agents observing these signals choose delay, hoping to condition their behavior on future actors (who may themselves also delay). This stalemate prevents society from recognizing the presence of rare states, even when the...

This paper implements a liquidity measure, “Liquidity Mismatch Index (LMI),” to gauge the mismatch between the market liquidity of assets and the funding liquidity of liabilities. We construct the LMIs for 2882 bank holding companies during 2002-2014 and investigate the time-series and...

Governments often require that products carry warnings to inform people about risks. The warnings approach, as opposed to the command and control approach to risk regulation, functions as a decentralized regulatory mechanism that empowers individuals to make decisions that take into account...

The performances of the first month of the ECMWF probabilistic extended forecast and the seasonal forecast to predict droughts over Europe are compared. The Standardized Precipitation Index is used to quantify droughts. It can be shown that on average the extended forecast has higher skill than...

The objective of the report is to detect steep declining trends in biomass and abundance, of anchovy and sardine from acoustic surveys in the Mediterranean Sea. Declining trends would give an early warning on the recent stock dynamics and potentially trigger a EC DG MARE request of priority...