Advanced first-order second-moment (AFOSM) is commonly used to obtain an upper-bound estimate for a probabilistic … analysis. This study presents a new AFOSM application to engineering seismology, estimating major earthquake probabilities …>w</Subscript>. The AFOSM analysis shows that the probability could be as high as 64 % for a major earthquake in northern Taiwan to exceed …

-moment (AFOSM) method to calculate the overtopping probability of levee system. The proposed model is used to evaluate the effects …