In this paper we entertain a method of finding the most robust moving average weighting scheme to use for the purpose of timing the market. Robustness of a weighting scheme is defined its ability to generate sustainable performance under all possible market scenarios regardless of the size of...

Forecasting oil prices has been of great interests for macroeconomists in the recent years. Our article contributes to this strand of the literature by using a dynamic model averaging (DMA) method to improve forecasting accuracy of real oil prices. The advantage of DMA is that the method...

ARMA-GARCH-Modellierung; nicht-Normalität; normal-inverse Gauss-Verteilung (NIG-Verteilung); realisierte Momente; Staatsanleihen; Strom Forwards; stylized facts von Finanzzeitreihen; Value at Risk; Verteilung von Anleiherenditen

This study investigates the dynamics of quarterly real GDP per capita growth rates across four countries, the US, UK, Canada and France. I obtain estimates for ARIMA(p,q) processes for first differences of log quarterly real GDP per capita using Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo, allowing...

Although the properties of the ARCH(∞) model are well investigated, the existence of long memory FIGARCH and IARCH solution was not established in the literature. These two popular ARCH type models which are widely used in applied literature, were causing theoretical controversy because of the...