This paper presents a DSGE model in which agents׳ learning about the economy can endogenously generate time-varying macroeconomic volatility. Economic agents use simple models to form expectations and need to learn the relevant parameters. Their gain coefficient is endogenous and is adjusted...

We examine global dynamics under infinite-horizon learning in New Keynesian models where the interest-rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound. The intended steady state is locally but not globally stable. Unstable deflationary paths emerge after large pessimistic shocks to expectations. For...

I present a simple model where forecasting confidence affects aggregate demand. It is shown that this model has similar stability properties, under statistical and evolutionary learning, as a model without a confidence affect. From this setup, I introduce “Expectational Business Cycles”...

In a model of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve with two E-stable solutions we demonstrate through simulations that forward guidance can ensure the economy settles on the low persistence equilibrium. While market participants use sample autocorrelation learning, the Central Bank uses least...

We propose behavioral learning equilibria, where boundedly rational agents learn to use a simple univariate linear forecasting rule with correctly specified unconditional mean and first-order autocorrelation. In the long run, agents learn the best univariate linear forecasting rule, without...