This paper demonstrates that an asset pricing model with least-squares learning can lead to bubbles and crashes as endogenous responses to the fundamentals driving asset prices. When agents are risk-averse they need to make forecasts of the conditional variance of a stock’s return. Recursive...

This paper studies the implications for monetary policy of heterogeneous expectations in a New Keynesian model. The assumption of rational expectations is replaced with parsimonious forecasting models where agents select between predictors that are underparameterized. In a Misspecification...

Using data obtained from experiments reported in García-Gallego (1998) and García- Gallego and Georgantzís (2001), we estimate a simple model of adaptive behavior which could describe pricing in a market whose demand conditions are unknown to the firms. Divergence between the limit of...

This paper introduces similarity among strategies in the payoff assessment model of choice (Sarin and Vahid (1999, GEB)). The assessments of strategies that are more similar to the chosen strategy are updated more similarly to the chosen strategy. We use this model to explain a recent experiment.

This paper studies the aspiration-based learning dynamics in symmetric normal-form games played at multiple locations. In particular, the aspiration level in one location is linked to the average performances of players in observable locations. With a decentralized information structure, the...

We examine global economic dynamics under infinite-horizon learning in a New Keynesian model in which the interest-rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound. As in Evans, Guse and Honkapohja (2008), we find that under normal monetary and fiscal policy the intended steady state is locally but...