In this paper, we propose a new method to forecast macroeconomic variables that combines two existing approaches to mixed-frequency data in DSGE models. The first existing approach estimates the DSGE model in a quarterly frequency and uses higher frequency auxiliary data only for forecasting...

This paper studies the aggregation of random expected utility preferences in a society with a continuum of individuals. We propose a stochastic analogue of the standard Pareto condition: if every individual chooses an item from a menu as frequently as another item, so should society. We show...

We examine the performance of the Aggregate Portfolio of All Equity Investments (APAEI) in 17,242 ventures with first funding round between 1980 and 2006 by following them till 2018, or their exits if earlier. The Gornall and Strebulaev (2020) upward bias in later-stage pre-money-valuations,...

Using a principal-agent setting in which the agent has a rich action space, we provide a novel framework for studying accounting measurement and aggregation. We show that the optimal contracting process can be decomposed into three stages: constructing unbiased estimates of items that the...

We propose and find that aggregating a small number of earnings signals from highly macroeconomically exposed firms yields an informative leading indicator of future GDP. This challenges the convention of defining aggregate earnings using a comprehensive set of public earnings signals. Our...

Consider an investment problem with strategic complementarities and incomplete information about returns. This paper shows that investors aggregate their private information in equilibrium by trading a token and observing its market price over multiple rounds before making the investment...

We consider collective decisions under uncertainty, when agents have "generalized Hurwicz" preferences, a broad class allowing many different ambiguity attitudes, including subjective expected utility preferences. We consider sequences of acts that are “almost-objectively uncertain” in the...