We describe a two-stage model of global log and chip markets that evaluates the spatial and temporal economic effects of government-subsidized fire-related mechanical fuel treatment programs in the U.S. West and South. The first stage is a goal program that allocates subsidies according to fire...

Prediction in financial domains is notoriously difficult for a number ofreasons. First, theories tend to be weak or non-existent, which makesproblem formulation open ended by forcing us to consider a large numberof independent variables and thereby increasing the dimensionality ofthe search...

Measurement error modeling is a statistical approach to the estimation of unknown model parameters which takes into account the measurement errors in all of the data. Approaches which ignore the measurement errors in so-called independent variables may yield inferior estimates of unknown model...

In order to devise an algorithm for autonomously terminating Monte Carlo sampling when sufficiently small and reliable confidence intervals (CI) are achieved on calculated probabilities, the behavior of CI estimators must be characterized. This knowledge is also required in comparing the...

DOE facilities handling special nuclear material are required to comply with DOE Order 5633.3, which addresses various aspects of nuclear material accounting. In particular, it requires that control limits be calculated for nuclear material inventory differences. These requirements and methods...

This paper presents an improved version of incremental condition estimation, a technique for tracking the extremal singular values of a triangular matrix as it is being constructed one column at a time. We present a new motivation for this estimation technique using orthogonal projections. The...

Event tree analysis and Monte Carlo-based discrete event simulation have been used in risk assessment studies for many years. This report details how features of these two methods can be combined with concepts from object-oriented analysis to develop a new risk assessment methodology with some...

As part of a study aimed at estimating suburban highway needs for year 2005, models were developed for forecasting daily vehicle miles of travel (DVMT) for urban areas and its distribution by highway functional class, urban location, and urban area size. A regression model combining both time...