This paper describes an algorithm, “DoomBot”, which selects parsimonious models to predict downturns over different quarterly horizons covering the ensuing two years for 20 OECD countries. The models are country- and horizon-specific and are automatically updated as the estimation sample...

People constantly encode and represent the information around them, and they make various inferences, judgments, and decisions based on their representation. The dissertation aims to connect mental representations to consumer behaviors. Investigating how consumers represent their choices and...