We present a stochastic simulation model of a prototype financial market. Our market is populated by both noise traders and fundamentalist speculators. The dynamics covers switches in the prevailing mood among noise traders (optimistic or pessimistic) as well as switches of agents between the...

In turbulent time periods, the conditional covariance matrix of cash and futures prices should vary over time. The conventional regression based approach to estimate the optimal hedge could then be inappropriate. This paper investigates the hedging effectiveness of BTP futures contracts from...

Standard serial correlation tests are derived assuming that the disturbances are homoscedastic, but this study shows that asympotic critical values are not accurate when this assumption is violated. Asymptotic critical values for the ARCH(2)-corrected LM, BP and BL tests are valid only when the...

In this article we study different time-series processes that may describe EMS exchange rate patterns. We conclude that conditional heteroskedasticity and discontinuous time paths are prominent features of EMS exchange rates. A combined jump- diffusion-ARCH model can capture these features...