Lahiri, Kajal; Peng, Huaming; Zhao, Yongchen - In: International Journal of Forecasting 31 (2015) 1, pp. 113-129
We combine the probability forecasts of a real GDP decline from the US Survey of Professional Forecasters, after trimming the forecasts that do not have “value”, as measured by the Kuiper Skill Score and in the sense of Merton (1981). For this purpose, we use a simple test to evaluate the...
