Vector autoregressive (VAR) models for stationary and integrated variables are reviewed. Model specification and parameter estimation are discussed and various uses of these models for forecasting and economic analysis are considered. For integrated and cointegrated variables it is argued that...

This paper investigates the properties of a class of models which incorporate nonlinear dynamics, known as Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) models. Simulations show that within the context of the real exchange rate literature, a threshold model of exchange rates exhibits significant small sample...

This paper develops a systematic Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework based upon Efficient Importance Sampling (EIS) which can be used for the analysis of a wide range of econometric models involving integrals without an analytical solution. EIS is a simple, generic and yet accurate...

The use of hierarchical Bayesian spatial models in the analysis of ecological data is increasingly prevalent. The implementation of these models has been heretofore limited to specifically written software that required extensive programming knowledge to create. The advent of WinBUGS provides...

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) has become the benchmark model for understanding inflation in modern monetary economics. One reason for the popularity is the microfoundation of the model, which decomposes agents' behaviour into price adjustments and deviations of the price level from its...

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) has become the benchmark model for understanding inflation in modern monetary economics. One reason for the popularity is the microfoundation of the model, which decomposes agents' behaviour into price adjustments and deviations of the price level from its...

In this paper international comovements among a set of key real and nominal macroeconomic variables for the G-7 countries have been investigated for the 1980- 2005 period, using a Factor Vector Autoregressive approach. We present evidence that comovements in macroeconomic variables do not...

This paper develops a systematic Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework based upon Efficient Importance Sampling (EIS) which can be used for the analysis of a wide range of econometric models involving integrals without an analytical solution. EIS is a simple, generic and yet accurate...

Using national level input-output matrices, we propose a strategy to identify pecuniary externalities operating through the markets for intermediate goods at the local level. Then, controlling for common shocks in a spatial econometric framework, (i) we estimate the e®ect of pecuniary...

The purpose of this article is to analyze if spatial dependence is a synchronic effect, as it has usually been defined. It is known that in many socio-economic phenomena spatial dependence can be not only contemporary but also time-lagged. In this paper, we use two Moran-based space-time...