We use firm-level financial data to illustrate the impact of the COVID-19 crisis under several scenarios. We estimate COVID-19 induced cumulative net revenue losses for EU companies in the range of 5.4 to 10.0% of total assets, depending on the strength of the policy support and length of the...

We use firm-level financial data to illustrate the impact of the COVID-19 crisis under several scenarios. We estimate COVID-19 induced cumulative net revenue losses for EU companies in the range of 5.4 to 10.0% of total assets, depending on the strength of the policy support and length of the...

We study the contagion effects of a U.S. housing shock on OECD countries over the period of the subprime crisis. Considering a large database containing national macroeconomic, financial, and trade dynamic variables for 17 OECD countries, we evaluate forecasting accuracy, and perform a...

We use several models using classical and Bayesian methods to forecast employment for eight sectors of the US economy. In addition to using standard vector-autoregressive and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, we also augment these models to include the information content of 143 additional...

This paper develops a multivariate time series model to forecast output growth and inflation in the Hong Kong economy. We illustrate the steps involved in designing and building a vector autoregression (VAR) forecasting model, and consider three types of VAR models, including unrestricted,...

We study the contagion effects of a U.S. housing shock on OECD countries over the period of the subprime crisis. Considering a large database containing national macroeconomic, financial, and trade dynamic variables for 17 OECD countries, we evaluate forecasting accuracy, and perform a...