Restrictions on international capital transactions and other payments are usually designed to limit volatile short-term capital flows ( hot money ) and stabilize the exchange rate. Their imposition, however, may have the opposite effect by inadvertently signaling the continuation of...

We present a model of the optimal level of international reserves for a small open economy seeking insurance against sudden stops in capital flows. We derive a formula for the optimal level of reserves, and show that plausible calibrations can explain reserves of the order of magnitude observed...

Mexico’s financial debacle and its impact on other emerging markets (the Tequila effect)has raised many fundamental questions. Mexico achieved fiscal balance in 1993, undertookseveral fundamental market-oriented reforms, signed a free trade agreement with a very largemarket (the NAFTA), became...

In exchange rate-based stabilization programs, credibility often follows a distinct time pattern. At first it rises as the highly visible nominal anchor provides a sense of stability and hopes run high for a permanent solution to the fiscal problems. Later, as the domestic currency appreciates...

This paper analyzes devaluations in a fixed exchange rate system by endogenizing both the speculation and devaluation decisions. It is shown that deterministic devaluation rules are generally sub-optimal for the central bank. In order to deter speculation the central bank introduces uncertainty...

Existing models of exchange rate crises do not provide a good explanation for the breakdown of the ERM in 1992<196>3. This paper presents an alternative model which captures some of the important features of that period. The switch from a fixed to a floating rate is triggered by an optimizing...</196>