The authors apply a Hidden Markov Model to identify regimes of shifting inflation and then employ an attribution technique based on the Mahalanobis distance to identify the economic variables that determine the trajectory of inflation. Their analysis enables policymakers to focus on the most...

In the paper the deterministic version of the procedure based on hidden Markov models for the analysis of economic cycles is described. The quality of fitting hidden Markov models as well as the accuracy of the identification of turning points in the business cycle in Poland depends, among other...