Discrete mixture (DM) models recognize the presence of heterogeneity across individuals in a given population. In the context of a public land use discrete choice experiment, we use DM models to allow for respondent behavior to probabilistically mix over multiple competing decision paradigms. We...

Banking-system shutdowns during contractions scar economies. Four times in the last forty years, governors suspended payments from state-insured depository institutions. Suspensions of payments in Nebraska (1983), Ohio (1985), and Maryland (1985), which were short and occurred during expansions,...

We compare two approaches to using information about the signs of structural shocks at specific dates within a structural vector autoregression (SVAR): imposing ‘narrative restrictions’ (NR) on the shock signs in an otherwise set-identified SVAR; and casting the information about the shock...

In this paper, I show that the "Bayesian inversion" of demand, which is defined as the posterior distribution of random utilities given realized choices, can replace Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes (1995)’ "mean utility inversion" and radically simplify the estimation of discrete choice models...

A flexible predictive density combination model is introduced for large financial data sets which allows for dynamic weight learning and model set incompleteness. Dimension reduction procedures allocate the large sets of predictive densities and combination weights to relatively small sets....

We propose a new variational approximation of the joint posterior distribution of the log-volatility in the context of large Bayesian VARs. In contrast to existing approaches that are based on local approximations, the new proposal provides a global approximation that takes into account the...

We investigate how an informed designer maximizes her objective when facinga player whose payoff depends on both the designer's private information andon an unknown state within the classical quasilinear environment. Thedesigner can disclose arbitrary information about the state via...

The extent to which push and pull factors affect international capital flows is widely debated. We contribute to this strand of literature by estimating the relative importance of push and pull factors for portfolio flows over a time span, encompassing the global financial crisis, the European...

Many marketing research projects aim not only to estimate the causal effect of an intervention but also to understand the mechanism by which the intervention affects outcomes. However, existing causal inference methods, such as difference-in-differences and synthetic control, do not include...

Catastrophe (CAT) bond markets are incomplete and hence carry uncertainty in instrument pricing. As such various pricing approaches have been proposed, but none treat the uncertainty in catastrophe occurrences and interest rates in a sufficiently flexible and statistically reliable way within a...