Following Lence and Hayes (1994a), we study the problem faced by an Iowa farmer who wishes to hedge a soybean harvest using Chicago futures contracts. A time-series model for spot and futures prices is postulated, and numerical Bayesian procedures are used to calculate predictive densities and...

The objective is to compare the effectiveness of financial markets and financial intermediaries in financing new industries and technologies in the presence of diversity of opinion. In markets, investors become informed about the details of the new industry or technology and make their own...

Consider a decision problem involving a group of m Bayesians in which each member reports his/her posterior distribution for some random variable \theta . The individuals all share a common prior distribution for \theta and a common loss function, but form their posterior distributions based on...

A characterization is given of diametrically opposed interests between two players: either neither is a Bayesian, or both have a unique probability and utility function (up to the usual transformation) or both have many possible probabilities and utilities. In the second case, their utility...