We introduce a novel methodology, "parametric tilting," for incorporating external information into econometric model-based density forecasts. Unlike traditional entropic tilting, which can generate unrealistic or unstable distributions under certain conditions, parametric tilting ensures more...

This work presents a practical approach to improve risk quantification for heavy-tailed insurance claims through model averaging and grid map visualization, addressing the drawbacks of traditional single "best" model selection commonly used in actuarial and model-fitting literature. This is a...

This paper estimates Morocco's natural interest rate (NIR) using two approaches: a standard HLW-type framework and an augmented specification that incorporates external factors, namely imported inflation, and movements in the real effective exchange rate. The results point to a downward trend in...

Advice plays a central role in health, personal finance, and energy-efficiency decisions. We study how a benevolent expert should design verifiable advice - such as whether to commission a diagnostic test of different accuracy - when the agent is behaviorally biased, either neglecting...

The output gap is a key guide for economic policymaking and analysis. It is often used to quantify inflationary pressures and thus plays a central role in Danmarks Nationalbank's assessment of the state of the Danish economy. This paper refines Danmarks Nationalbank's existing production...

Accurate supplier lead time prediction is critical for maintaining resilience in Engineer-to-Order (EtO) supply chains, characterized by high customization and uncertainty. This study develops a simulation-based predictive framework combining log-normal sensitivity analysis, Internet of Things...

This paper investigates the macroeconomic and bank-specific determinants of nonperforming loans in Romania and selected Central and Eastern European countries. Using a combination of econometric approaches, the study employs fixed-effects panel regressions for 18 Romanian banks over the period...

To mitigate credit risk, banks are required to set aside a specific amount as a safety net to absorb the expected loss on a banks' loan portfolio called loan loss provisions (LLPs) or provisions for bad debts. All banks worldwide had to adopt International Financial Reporting Standard 9 (IFRS 9)...