This paper aims to identify the actual objectives of monetary authorities in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) that promote an independent monetary policy. In this sense we consider the study of central banks (CBs) behavior in the Czech Republic, Poland, Romania and Hungary in establishing...

In this paper we propose a strategy for forecasting the term structure of interest rates which may produce significant gains in predictive accuracy. The key idea is to use the restrictions implied by Affine Term Structure Models (ATSM) on a vector autoregression (VAR) as prior information rather...

This paper sets up and estimates a structural model of Australia as a small open economy using Bayesian techniques. Unlike other recent studies, the paper shows that a small micro-founded model can capture the open economy dimensions quite well. Specifically, the model attributes a substantial...

This paper examines the predictive content of coincident variables for monitoring U.S. recessions in the presence of instabilities. We propose several specifications of a probit model for classifying phases of the business cycle. We find strong evidence in favor of the ones that allow for the...

In this paper I compare the calibration technique with the Bayesian approach in the context of econometric methods of estimating structural models. I use the real business cycles model to apply both techniques. The model is calibrated and estimated for Romanian economy using quarterly data. I...