Does economic theory help in forecasting key macroeconomic variables? This article aims to provide some insight into the question by drawing lessons from the literature. The definition of "economic theory" includes a broad range of examples, such as accounting identities, disaggregation and...

We construct and estimate a model that features endogenous growth and technology diffusion. The spillover effects from research and development provide a link between business cycle fluctuations and long-term growth. Therefore, productivity growth is related to the state of the economy. Shocks...

The purpose of this paper is to examine the role of multilateral adjustment to U.S. external imbalances in driving bilateral real exchange rate movements by developing a new regime-switching model that consists of a Markov-switching model with a time-varying transition matrix that depends on a...

Life course perspectives focus on the variation in trajectories, generally to identify differences in variation dynamics and classify trajectories accordingly. Our goal here is to develop methods to gauge the discontinuity characteristics trajectories exhibit and demonstrate how these measures...

This paper builds a New Keynesian model with financial frictions and monetary and fiscal rules for the United States. We incorporate a rational bubble process in the (relative) price of capital. Our results show that bubbles account for a significant amount of variance in key macroeconomic...

This paper contributes to the debate on the decoupling of emerging economies (EEs) from advanced economies (AEs), by measuring how the resilience of EEs to external shocks (i.e. shocks spreading from AEs) has changed over time and whether EEs are relatively more vulnerable to real or financial...