Search Results - subject:"Bayesian Model Averaging"

Meta-Functional Benefit Transfer for Wetland Valuation: Making the Most of Small Samples

Moeltner, Klaus; Woodward, Richard T. - Economics Department, University of Nevada-Reno; … - 2007

This study applies functional Benefit Transfer via Meta-Regression Modeling to derive valuation estimates for wetlands in an actual policy setting of proposed groundwater transfers in Eastern Nevada. We illustrate how Bayesian estimation techniques can be used to overcome small sample problems...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005077176

Reconsidering the role of monetary indicators for euro area inflation from a Bayesian perspective using group inclusion probabilities

Scharnagl, Michael; Schumacher, Christian - Deutsche Bundesbank - 2007

Bayesian framework. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA)based on predictive likelihoods provides a framework that allows for the …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005083269

Assessing forecast uncertainties in a VECX* model for Switzerland: an exercise in forecast combination across models and observation windows

Pesaran, M.H.; Assenmacher-Wesche, K. - Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge - 2007

We investigate the effect of forecast uncertainty in a cointegrating vector error correction model for Switzerland. Forecast uncertainty is evaluated in three different dimensions. First, we investigate the effect on forecasting performance of averaging over forecasts from different models....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005650530

An Embarrassment of Riches: Forecasting Using Large Panels

Eklund, Jana; Karlsson, Sune - Handelshögskolan, Örebro Universitet - 2007

factor models popularized by Stock and Watson and forecast combination as an application of Bayesian model averaging. We find …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005644788

Bayesian Forecast Combination for VAR Models

Andersson, Michael K; Karlsson, Sune - Handelshögskolan, Örebro Universitet - 2007

We consider forecast combination and, indirectly, model selection for VAR models when there is uncertainty about which variables to include in the model in addition to the forecast variables. The key dierence from traditional Bayesian variable selection is that we also allow for uncertainty...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005644799

Bayesian Model Averaging and Identification of Structural Breaks in Time Series

Fraser, Iain; Balcombe, Kelvin; Sharma, Abhijit - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2007

Bayesian model averaging is used for testing for multiple break points in uni- variate series using conjugate normal …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005787041

Learning, Forecasting and Structural Breaks

Maheu, John M; Gordon, Stephen - University of Toronto, Department of Economics - 2007

We provide a general methodology for forecasting in the presence of structural breaks induced by unpredictable changes to model parameters. Bayesian methods of learning and model comparison are used to derive a predictive density that takes into account the possibility that a break will occur...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005827265

Bayesian Model Averaging in the Context of Spatial Hedonic Pricing: An Application to Farmland Values

van Kooten, Gerrit Cornelis; Cotteleer, Geerte; Stobbe, … - Department of Economics, University of Victoria - 2007

weighting matrix. Bayesian model averaging techniques in combination with Markov Chain Monte Carlo Model Composition are used to …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005700455

Which Democracies Pay Higher Wages?

Rockey, James C. - School of Economics, Finance and Management, University … - 2007

impact on economic outcomes. An empirical analysis using treatment effect estimators and Bayesian Model Averaging provides … constitutions impact on economic outcomes. An empirical analysis using treat- ment eﬀect estimators and Bayesian Model Averaging … Bayesian Model Averaging. The fourth section discusses the data used for key variables, the fifth section presents the results …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005135187

Meta-Regression and Benefit Transfer: Data Space, Model Space, and the Quest for ‘Optimal Scope’

Moeltner, Klaus; Rosenberger, Randall S. - Economics Department, University of Nevada-Reno; … - 2007

Meta-functional Benefit Transfer, while conceptually attractive, is often plagued by the paucity of available source studies and related small sample problems. A broadening of scope of the Meta-Regression Model by adding data from “related, yet different” contexts or activities may...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005135352