In economic applications, model averaging has found principal use in examining the validity of various theories related to observed heterogeneity in outcomes such as growth, development, and trade. Though often easy to articulate, these theories are imperfectly captured quantitatively. A number...

This paper focuses on the Bayesian model average (BMA) using the power-expected-posterior prior in objective Bayesian variable selection under normal linear models. We derive a BMA point estimate of a predicted value, and present computation and evaluation strategies of the prediction accuracy....

I examine 468 estimates on the relationship between trading volume and stock returns reported in 44 studies. I deploy recent nonlinear techniques for detecting publication bias together with Bayesian and frequentist model averaging to evaluate the heterogeneity in the estimates. The results...

A structural Bayesian vector autoregression model predicts that - when accompanied by a decline in consumer confidence - a one-percent decrease in house prices is associated with a contraction of economic activity by 0.2 to 1.2 percent after one year. Results point to important second-round...