I present a new approach to stress testing that combines the elicitation of subjective (marginal or conditional) probabilities of events with the specification of a simple causal structure among them. By so doing, stress events are placed in an approximate but coherent probabilistic framework....

This paper addresses the implementation of Bayesian sampling methodology in a graphical probability environment, i.e. Bayesian networks (BNs). An architecture of BNs which is able to be used for sampling from small and large consignments is outlined in detail. Through direct interaction with...

Bayesian empirical approaches appear frequently in fields such as egineering, computer science, political science and medicine, but almost never in law. This article illustrates how such approaches might be very useful in empirical legal studies. In particular, Bayesian approaches enable a much...

Bayesian Networks are a form of probabilistic graphical models and they are used for modeling knowledge in many application areas, from medicine to image processing. They are particularly useful for business applications, ans * Unique coverage of probabilistic reasoning topics applied to...

In Coherent Stress Testing: A Bayesian Approach, industry expert Riccardo Rebonato presents a groundbreaking new approach to this important but often undervalued part of the risk management toolkit. Based on the author's extensive work, research and presentations in the area, the book fills a...

Traffic accident reconstruction has been defined as the effort to determine, from whatever evidence is available, how an accident happened. Traffic accident reconstruction can be treated as a problem in uncertain reasoning about a particular event, and developments in modeling uncertain...

Econometric models are widely used in the creation and evaluation of economic policy in the public and private sectors. But these models are useful only if they adequately account for the phenomena in question, and they can be quite misleading if they do not. In response, econometricians have...

In a Bayesian approach, we compare the forecasting performance of five classes of models: ARCH, GARCH, SV, SV-STAR, and MSSV using daily Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) market data. To estimate the parameters of the models, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods is applied. The results show that...

Complete and Incomplete Econometric Models John Geweke Princeton University Press Princeton and Oxford Contents Series Editors' Introduction vii Preface ...