Self-employment grants and employment subsidies are active labor market programs that aim at helping unemployed workers to escape unemployment by becoming self-employed or being hired at an initially reduced cost for the employer. In Sweden in the 1990's the participation rate in the...

A complete procedure for calculating the joint predictive distribution of future observations based on the cointegrated vector autoregression is presented. The large degree of uncertainty in the choise of the cointegration vectors is incorporated into the analysis through a prior distribution on...

This paper proposes a Bayesian method of performance evaluation for investment managers. We begin with a flexible set of prior beliefs that can be elicited without any reference to probability distributions or their parameters. We then combine these prior beliefs with a general multi-factor...

Though Hamilton's (1989) Markov switching model has been widely estimated in various contexts, formal testing for Markov switching is not straightforward. Univariate tests in the classical framework by Hansen (1992) and Garcia (1998) do not reject the linear model for GDP. We present Bayesian...

In this paper the issue of making inferences with misclassified data from a noisy multinomial process is addressed. A Bayesian model for making inferences about the proportions and the noise parameters is developed. The problem is reformulated in a more tractable form by introducing auxiliary or...

Do public opinion dynamics play an important role in understanding conflict trajectories between democratic governments and other rival groups? The authors interpret several theories of opinion dynamics as competing clusters of contemporaneous causal links connoting reciprocity, accountability,...