Search Results - subject:"Bayesian methods"

The trend-cycle decomposition of output and the Phillips curve: Bayesian estimates for Italy

Busetti, Fabio; Caivano, Michele - Banca d'Italia - 2013

A standard model-based trend-cycle decomposition of Italian GDP yields a likelihood function that is relatively flat and has two local maxima. A Bayesian estimation of the model identifies output gap and trend components that match the features of the Italian business cycle well. In a bivariate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011099696

Labour Market Dynamics in Australia

Wesselbaum, Dennis - Volkswirtschaftliche Fakultät, … - 2013

Bayesian methods we find that the model does a fairly good job in replicating the data. Surprisingly, we find a large value for …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011259078

A Model of Firm Experimentation under Demand Uncertainty: an Application to Multi-Destination Exporters

Mitaritonna, Cristina; Akhmetova, Zhanar - Centre d'études prospectives et d'informations … - 2013

Firm level data exhibits that new exporters tend to start small, a large fraction of these drops out by the second year of exporting, and the survivors expand rapidly. To take into account this stylized fact, we propose a theory of firm behavior that assumes demand uncertainty about the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010827786

Is Decoupling in action?

Pesce, Antonio - European Regional Science Association - 2013

Emerging market economies (also known as emerging economies, EEs) have become important on the world economic stage, where they now play a vital role in international trade and financial flows and account for a conspicuous fraction of the global economic dynamic. Despite the relatively tepid...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010740494

Professional forecasters and the real-time forecasting performance of an estimated new keynesian model for the euro area

Smets, Frank; Warne, Anders; Wouters, Raf - 2013

This paper analyses the real-time forecasting performance of the New Keynesian DSGE model of Galí, Smets, and Wouters (2012) estimated on euro area data. It investigates to what extent forecasts of inflation, GDP growth and unemployment by professional forecasters improve the forecasting...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605616

Does Central Bank Independence Really Matter? Re-Assessing the Role of the Independence of Monetary Policymakers in Macroeconomic Outcomes

Zervoyianni, Athina; Anastasiou, Athanasios; … - Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis (RCEA) - 2013

Using both standard regressions and Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo estimation methods from a Bayesian perspective and a sample of 39 countries for 1981-2006, we re-examine the role of central-bank independence (CBI) in macroeconomic outcomes. Control variables commonly used in the literature are...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010742265

Professional forecasters and the real-time forecasting performance of an estimated new keynesian model for the euro area

Smets, Frank; Warne, Anders; Wouters, Raf - European Central Bank - 2013

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010686819

Use of Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods to Estimate EQ-5D Utility Scores from Eortic QLQ Data in Myeloma for Use in Cost effectiveness Analysis

Kharroubi, Samer A; Edlin, Richard; Meads, David; … - Academic Unit of Health Economics, Leeds Institute of … - 2013

reported in the literature; however, to date there has been limited utilization of Bayesian methods in this context. In this … the Bayesian methods in relation to dealing with missing data, relaxing the assumption of equal variances and … be estimated from the EORTC QLQ-C30/QLQMY20 for use in CEA. Frequentist and Bayesian methods produced effectively …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010701968

Modeling Hyperinflation Phenomenon: A Bayesian Approach

Gonzales Martínez, Rolando - Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos (CEMLA) - 2013

Hyperinflations are short-lived episodes of economic instability in prices which characteristically last twenty months or less. Classical statistical techniques applied to these small samples could lead to an incorrect inference problem. This paper describes a Bayesian approach for modeling...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011279222

Is decoupling in action?

Pesce, Antonio - 2013

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011508846