Shocks to the marginal efficiency of investment are the most important drivers of business cycle fluctuations in U.S. output and hours. Moreover, like a textbook demand shock, these disturbances drive prices higher in expansions. We reach these conclusions by estimating a dynamic stochastic...

In this paper, we present a Bayesian non-linear model to analyze matching pairs of microarray expression data. This model generalizes, in terms of neural networks, standard linear matching models. As a practical application, we analyze data of patients with Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia and we...

Does economic theory help in forecasting key macroeconomic variables? This article aims to provide some insight into the question by drawing lessons from the literature. The definition of "economic theory" includes a broad range of examples, such as accounting identities, disaggregation and...

This paper builds a New Keynesian model with financial frictions and monetary and fiscal rules for the United States. We incorporate a rational bubble process in the (relative) price of capital. Our results show that bubbles account for a significant amount of variance in key macroeconomic...

Life course perspectives focus on the variation in trajectories, generally to identify differences in variation dynamics and classify trajectories accordingly. Our goal here is to develop methods to gauge the discontinuity characteristics trajectories exhibit and demonstrate how these measures...