We present a full Bayesian model for assessing the reserve requirement of multiline Non-Life insurance companies. Bayesian models for claims reserving allow to account for expert knowledge in the evaluation of Outstanding Loss Liabilities, allowing the use of additional information at a low...

As the global economy seems to be recovering from the 2009 financial crisis, we find it desirable to look back and analyze the Czech economy ex post. We work with a Swedish New Keynesian model of a small open economy which embeds financial frictions in light of the financial accelerator...

We investigate macroeconomic fluctuations in the Mediterranean basin, their similarities and convergence. A model with four indicators, roughly covering the West, the East and the Middle East and the North Africa portions of the Mediterranean, characterizes well the historical experience since...

A probit model is used to show that latent common factors estimated by principal components from a large number of macroeconomic time series have important predictive power for NBER recession dates. A pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise shows that predicted recession probabilities...

Based on a structural VAR and a dynamic general equilibrium model, we provide evidence of the changes in the monetary transmission mechanism (MTM) in the European Monetary Union after the adoption of the common currency in 1999. The estimation of a Bayesian VAR over the periods before and after...