Global marketing managers are keenly interested in being able to predict the salesof their new products. Understanding how a product is adopted over time allowsthe managers to optimally allocate their resources. With the world becoming evermore global, there are strong and complex interactions...

W e develop a structural demand model that endogenously captures the effect of out-of-stocks on customer choice by simulating a time-varying set of available alternatives. Our estimation method uses store-level data on sales and partial information on product availability. Our model allows for...

We propose a new approach to forecasting the term structure of interest rates, which allows to efficiently extract the information contained in a large panel of yields. In particular, we use a large Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) with an optimal amount of shrinkage towards univariate AR...

We develop and analyze a tractable empirical model for strategic network formation that can be estimated with data from a single network at a single point in time. We model the network formation as a sequential process where in each period a single randomly selected pair of agents has the...

We propose a new approach to forecasting the term structure of interest rates, which allows to efficiently extract the information contained in a large panel of yields. In particular, we use a large Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) with an optimal amount of shrinkage towards univariate AR...

Sufficient solvency of a pension insurance company responsible for defined-benefit pensions guarantees that the pensions are paid regardless of turbulence in the financial market. In the Finnish occupational pension system TyEL, the required level of solvency capital (solvency limit) and its...

In this paper, the Bayesian method together with the calibration approach is used to parameterise the DSGE model. We present a medium-scale two-country model. Parameters controlling the steady state of the model are calibrated in order to match the ratios of a few selected variables to their...

In this study I use the Bayesian VAR framework to forecast the dynamics of output for the Romanian economy. I estimate several versions of Bayesian VARs and compare them in terms of forecasting statistics with two standard models, the OLS and the unrestricted VAR, as well as with a naïve...

I study whether US Tax Policies affected economic volatility during the post World War II period. I employ a Real Business Cycle model with distorting taxation on household income and tax rules, and assume that taxes respond to the cyclical conditions of the economy. I estimate the deep...

Bayesians and non-Bayesians, often called frequentists, seem to be perpetually at logger- heads on fundamental questions of statistical inference. This paper takes as agnostic a stand as is possible for a practising frequentist, and tries to elicit a Bayesian answer to questions of interest to...