This paper develops and applies tools to assess multivariate aspects of Bayesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model forecasts and their ability to predict comovements among key macroeconomic variables. We construct posterior predictive checks to evaluate conditional and...

We employ a Bayesian approach to analyze financial markets experimental data. We estimate a structural model of sequential trading in which trading decisions are classified in five types: private-information based, noise, herd, contrarian and irresolute. Through Monte Carlo simulation, we...

We investigate the relationship between monetary policy and inflation dynamics in the US using a medium scale structural model. The specification is estimated with Bayesian techniques and fits the data reasonably well. Policy shocks account for a part of the decline in inflation volatility; they...

This paper examines the properties of G-7 cycles using a multicountry Bayesian panel VAR model with time variations, unit specific dynamics and cross country interdependences. We demonstrate the presence of a significant world cycle and show that country specific indicators play a much smaller...

McCausland (2004a) describes a new theory of random consumer demand. Theoretically consistent random demand can be represented by a "regular" "L-utility" function on the consumption set X. The present paper is about Bayesian inference for regular L-utility functions. We express prior and...

McCausland (2004a) describes a new theory of random consumer demand. Theoretically consistent random demand can be represented by a "regular" "L-utility" function on the consumption set X. The present paper is about Bayesian inference for regular L-utility functions. We express prior and...

We introduce a procedure to infer the repeated-game strategies that generate actions in experimental choice data. We apply the technique to set of experiments where human subjects play a repeated Prisoner's Dilemma. The technique suggests that two types of strategies underly the data.