Default prior choices fixing Zellner's g are predominant in the Bayesian Model Averaging literature, but tend to concentrate posterior mass on a tiny set of models. The paper demonstrates this supermodel effect and proposes to address it by a hyper-g prior, whose data-dependent shrinkage adapts...

Allocations of research funds across programs are often made for efficiency reasons. Social science research is shown to have small, lagged but significant effects on U.S. agricultural efficiency when public agricultural R&D and extension are simultaneously taken into account. Farm management...

Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) are useful tools for modeling ecological predictions and aiding resource-management decision-making. We provide practical guidelines for developing, testing, and revising BBNs. Primary steps in this process include creating influence diagrams of the hypothesized...

This paper states necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence, uniqueness, and updating according to Bayes´ rule, of subjective probabilities representing individuals´ beliefs. The approach is preference based, and the result is an axiomatic subjective expected utility model of...

"A lack of data often makes biological management decisions difficult and has been an area of contention in the debate over the approval of transgenic crops. Our knowledge of agricultural and natural systems is limited and our ability to gain additional information, quickly and effectively, is...