The estimation of conditional probability distribution functions (PDFs) in a kernel nonparametric framework has recently received attention. As emphasized by Hall, Racine & Li (2004), these conditional PDFs are extremely useful for a range of tasks including modelling and predicting consumer...

We investigate the direct and long-run effects of fertility on employment in Europe estimating dynamic models of labor supply under different assumptions regarding the exogeneity of fertility and modeling assumptions related to initial conditions, unobserved heterogeneity and serial correlation...

In this paper we propose a composite indicator for real-time recession forecasting based on alternative dynamic probit models. For this purpose, we use a large set of monthly macroeconomic and financial leading indicators from the German and US economies. Alternative dynamic probit regressions...