Stock picking is the field of financial analysis that is of particular interest for many professional investors and researchers. There is a lot of research evidence supporting the fact that stock returns can effectively be forecasted. While various modeling techniques could be employed for stock...

This paper studies the political influence of individual firms on Congressional decisions to suspend tariffs on U.S. imports of intermediate goods. We develop a model in which firms influence the government by transmitting information about the value of protection, via costless messages...

Probabilistic Risk Assessment is being increasingly used in a number of industries such as nuclear, aerospace, chemical process, to name a few. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) characterizes risk in terms of three questions: (1) What can go wrong? (2) How likely is it? (3) What are the...

This paper develops a simple model of international lending, and calibrates it to assess quantitatively the effects of contingent IMF financial support on the risk premiums and the crisis probability. In the model, the country borrows in both short and long term; market (coordination) failure...