The Box-Jenkins' Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modelling approach has been applied for the time series analysis of monthly average prices of Oman crude oil taken over a period of 10 years. Several seasonal and non-seasonal ARIMA models were identified. These models were then...

This study was designed: (a) to investigate a simple neural-network solution to forecasting the special class of time series corresponding to a wide range of ARMA(p,q) structures; (b) to study the significance of matching the input window size with the nature of time series. The study adopted a...

A post-sample diagnostic test for judging the temporal stability of the Box-Jenkins time series models has been developed. The proposed test is based on the stochastic properties of the errors of the forecasts, at different leads, made from the same origin. Its application has been demonstrated...