This paper develops a new open economy structural VAR model of the New Zealand economy. The model adopts techniques introduced by Cushman and Zha (1997) and Dungey and Pagan (2000) to identify international and domestic shocks and dynamic responses to these shocks in a small open economy. The...

The theory of storage implies that commodity price volatility is inversely related to inventories, and that as inventories decline, spot prices become relatively more volatile than futures prices, and vice versa. These implications are directly tested using inventory and price data for six...

We conduct tests for the presence of low-dimensional chaotic structure in the futures prices of four important agricultural commodities. Though there is strong evidence of non-linear dependence, the evidence suggests that there is no long-lasting chaotic structure. The dimension estimates for...

This Selected Issues paper and Statistical Annex for Mali examines recent economic developments in Mali. The paper highlights that since the early 1990s, Mali has made appreciable progress in reducing macroeconomic imbalances and liberalizing the economy. This has been made possible by...

This paper re-examines empirical exchange rate puzzles by focusing on three OECD economies (Australia, Canada, and New Zealand) where primary commodities constitute a significant share of their exports. For Australia and New Zealand especially, we find that the U.S. dollar price of their...

This paper studies the prospects for sustainable growth and economic development in Gabon, in the face of a severe decline in its main source of income and growth, i.e. oil. A simple Computable General Equilibrium model is used to simulate the development of the non-oil economy under various...

This paper develops a new open economy structural VAR model of the New Zealand economy. The model adopts techniques introduced by Cushman and Zha (1997) and Dungey and Pagan (2000) to identify international and domestic shocks and dynamic responses to these shocks in a small open economy. The...